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Race	District/Pct	Candidate	Incumbent/ Challenger	Party Primary	More info:
County Commissioner	Precinct 1	Sergio "Chico" Rodriguez	I	D
County Commissioner	Precinct 1	Joe Ortiz	C.	R
Justice of the Peace	Precinct 2, Place 1	James "Wyatt" Wheelis	C	R
Justice of the Peace	Precinct 2, Place 1	Stephen M Walker	I	D
Justice of the Peace	Precinct 2, Place 1	Robert N "Bob" Ray	C	R
County Commissioner	Precinct 3	Kevin A Wolff	I	R

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Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst enters the U.S. Senate campaign with considerable cash and name recognition, but a couple of Republican challengers are nipping at his heels, both certain they can pull off an upset.

Dewhurst’s front-runner status in the March 6 GOP primary election is undisputed. But former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and former Texas solicitor general Ted Cruz each is confident he can force Dewhurst into a runoff and then turn up the heat in a one-on-one match.

Leppert figures his Metroplex base will launch him into the May 22 runoff. Cruz has become a tea party darling and, for someone never elected to public office, is drawing considerable national buzz among conservatives.

Democrats expect retired Army Gen. Ricardo Sanchez to run for the Senate seat. Sanchez has announced his intentions, but hasn’t filed. Thursday is the filing deadline.
Some political pundits think Dewhurst’s name recognition and money (his recent financial statement lists his worth as more than $200 million) will make it hard for anyone to defeat him. The seat is opening with the retirement of the state’s senior senator, U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

“It’s really a one-person race. Dewhurst is the only person who really is polling in double digits,” said longtime GOP consultant Bryan Eppstein, who is not working for any of the Senate candidates.

Since 1998, when he won the state Land Commissioner race, Dewhurst has spent more than $100 million, building political connections, political capital and name recognition, Eppstein said. He has been lieutenant governor since 2003.

Leppert and Cruz have considerable ground to make up — and little time to do it as early voting for the primary starts in about two months.

Cruz is the preferred choice of the Senate’s most conservative members — Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa.

Cruz also has appeared on the cover of the conservative magazine National Review, on Fox talk shows and was recently described by conservative columnist George Will as a “good as it gets” candidate.

“Cruz is the spunkiest thing that I have seen come along in awhile. He is pretty much lighting the world on fire,” Democratic consultant Harold Cook said. “Republican primary voters, especially the most conservative ones, really like that.”

But none of the national endorsements can offset Cruz’s disadvantages of not having either a geographic base or experience with voters, said Jim Cardle, founder and publisher of the conservative Texas Insider.

“There may be a lot of national interest in Ted Cruz, but none of those national guys vote here in Texas,” Cardle said. “If you are looking to win a statewide primary in Texas, you can’t do it without going through the cities of Houston and Dallas. You have to have those bases.”

Whether “smoke surrounding the tea party will translate into grassroots fire — and the grassroots getting to the polls” remains an unknown, Cardle said.

“We all hope the tea party is invigorating to the electoral process,” he said. “But you have to build on the base of your previous experience, and nobody can match David Dewhurst’s conservative record in the Legislature of balancing consecutive, difficult, problematic budgets and cleaning up government agencies.”

Cruz, however, sees himself as the strongest fighter for conservative politics. He believes he can counter Dewhurst’s money and name recognition with an intense and passionate grassroots following. By Cruz’s count, Dewhurst has failed to show for 18 GOP campaign events.

“That has consequences. Grassroots leaders are ticked off,” said Cruz. “Among the grassroots activists, we have a tremendous advantage. The enthusiasm differential is off the charts.”

Dewhurst, meanwhile, has been racking up endorsements from such groups as Texas Association of Fire Fighters, Texas State Lodge of the Fraternal Order of Police; Texas Municipal Police Association; Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas; Texans for Life; Texas Right to Life; and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association.
Dewhurst considers Leppert and Cruz “good people” and conceded that all of the GOP candidates are “conservatives.”

“But I am the only one in this race that has cut spending by billions of dollars and taxes by billions of dollars, and I know how to create an attractive business climate,” Dewhurst said.

Dewhurst and Leppert each had about $4.2 million in the bank, according to the latest (Sept. 30) campaign finance reports; Cruz had $2.4 million.
Leppert is emphasizing jobs creation in his campaign and trying to create enough momentum to spark a runoff.

“We have a North Texas base to build off of,” the former one-term Dallas mayor said. “We have substantial resources. “

Election changes this year will result in more than two months of campaigning between the primary and the May 22 runoff election. It will be easier to grab voters’ attention when the contest becomes a two-person race, Leppert said.

Texas tea party activists are miffed that Dewhurst keeps snubbing them. He has not shown up at candidate forums, said George Rodriguez, president of the San Antonio tea party.

“That’s been a very, very big issue with the tea parties. We are very much a grassroots organization. We expect the candidates to show up and talk to us. When it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t sit well with us,” said Rodriguez, who chats regularly and often with leaders of other Texas tea party organizations.

“We’re operating on our own schedule,” Dewhurst countered. “We’ve attended all types of events, all over the state, and will have time for more after the campaign really gets under way in January.”

To understand the Republican Presidential race, grasp first that the party is one of ideas. One is born into the Democratic Party. If you are black or Latino or poor or gay or become a single mother, your partisan identity is often spoken for. But you become a member of the Republican Party by agreeing with certain ideas. So there are several distinct groupings within the Republican Party merged together by shared ideals but with sharply different priorities and perspectives. Imagine that each sector of the party is like a division in the NFL or in Major League Baseball, with its own separate playoffs or pennant race and its own separate champion. Then, the winners of the divisions meet in the primaries. We are still in the pre-runoff phase.

Start with the Economic Conservative Division. These folks are deeply committed to free market economics. Often from big companies and corporations, they tend to be well off and to believe in capitalism and oppose redistribution of wealth. In their division, the candidates were Mitt Romney, Donald Trump, Tim Pawlenty, Chris Christie, and Mitch Daniels. Mitt is the only one left. He is the champ of that division which guarantees him a berth in the runoffs.

Closely allied to them is the Establishment Republican Division. This was the group that rallied to Bush-43 and impelled him to the nomination. They have to choose between Romney, Perry, and Gingrich. They can’t back Cain or Bachmann because both are too much outsiders. Perry has disappointed them so they are going largely for Mitt. But some will probably end up for Newt.

Then go to the Evangelical Division. They are motivated by religious and social issues like abortion, gay marriage and such. The candidates were Mike Huckabee, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry. Huck didn’t run. First Bachmann surged, then Perry and then Cain. But Cain fell back because of the sex harassment charges. This block can’t support Romney (although they will if he is nominated) because he is Mormon and flip flopped on abortion. They are reluctant to back Gingrich because of his personal issues. So they must choose among Perry, Cain, Bachmann, and Santorum. They haven’t chosen yet. But they will. One of these candidates has to be in the runoffs because this group has to have a candidate.

Then we go to the national security people. They are focused on defense, support the war in Afghanistan and back tough protections against terrorism. Their possible candidates are Gingrich, Bachmann, Perry, Romney, or Santorum. They won’t back Cain because of his inexperience and they disagree with Paul and Huntsman. Gingrich’s strong debate performance turned them on, but Romney is making a strong play for their votes. Santorum could gain traction, but likely not. Perry wants their votes, but he hurt himself by his lack of familiarity with the issues. They will probably split between Newt and Mitt. Between their votes and those of the party establishment Newt can pick up, it virtually assures Gingrich of a runoff birth.

Then there are the Tea Party folks. They focus on the federal deficit, the national debt, reining in spending, holding down taxes, opposing ObamaCare, and reducing government regulation. They had, initially, to choose among Daniels, Christie, Gingrich, Santorum, Perry, Cain, and Bachmann. They won’t support Romney because of RomneyCare in Massachusetts (although they would if he is the nominee). With Christie and Daniels out, they first went Bachmann because of her battle in Congress to cut spending. Then they were seduced by Perry but his immigration position turned them off so they went for Cain. Now they are worried about Cain and are looking at Gingrich or Bachmann or maybe still Cain.

So that’s the state of play. Romney has an assured runoff berth but nobody else does. If Newt doesn’t stumble over his consulting practice or personal issues, he will likely make the runoff as the National Security candidate with good support from the Party Establishment and Tea Party Divisions.

But that would still leave the Evangelicals out there. They can’t back Romney due to his religion or Newt because of his personal issues. So they will back someone else – Cain, Perry, Bachmann, or Santorum. And a lot of Tea Party people – who overlap with the Evangelicals – will also be looking at these candidates. One of these four is going to be in the final mix.

Then it will likely be a three way fight: Romney, Gingrich, and an Evangelical/Tea Party candidate to be named later.

This is the context of the Iowa caucuses. It is first and foremost a way to sort out the Evangelical/Tea Party conundrum and come up with their candidate. That’s what January 3rd will be all about.

Texas.  Texans voted to amend the state constitution. Of the ten proposed amendments, seven passed; amendments 4, 7, and 8 failed. Of the ten, the San Antonio Tea Party recommendations prevailed on four: amendments 1 and 10 passed, and amendments 4 and 8 failed. Thank you, voters, for making a difference!

Here in Bexar County, the Northeast Independent School District bond initiative also passed; the SATP did not take a position on that issue.

Voter turnout was low: only 5.21% of state voters cast ballots, while a slightly higher 5.67% of Bexar County voters did the same.

Arizona.  Republican Senate President Russell Pearce was defeated in an extremely close race by fellow Republican Jerry Lewis. This is the first time in Arizona history that a legislator has been recalled. While Pearce has not yet conceded the race and thousands of early and provisional ballots remain to be counted, Lewis was holding a steady lead with 53.4% of the vote. Official results may not be available until next week.

Kentucky.  Governor Steve Beshear (D) easily won his second term on Election Day. Beshear is an attorney, former legislator and former Attorney General. He defeated Republican State Senate President David Williams who retains his position as Senate President. Jerry Abramson is the newly elected Lt. Governor. Abramson is a former mayor and joined the ticket last year when Beshear’s Lt. Governor dropped off the ticket to run for U.S. Senate. Beshear wants to expand gambling in KY and will push for a constitutional amendment to be on the ballot in 2012.

Mississippi.  Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant (R) will succeed term-limited Haley Barbour (R) as Governor. Bryant defeated Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree (D) 61 to 39 percent. Republicans retained control of the state Senate with a 28-22 majority. The GOP also captured the House 63-55, absent unexpected absentee ballots and unsuccessful court challenges.

New Jersey.  With all 120 legislative seats up for grabs, the Democrats retained control of both Houses of the Legislature. Despite Governor Christie’s (R) financial support for Republican candidates in competitive districts, Republicans made no gains. Democrats added a seat to their already formidable majority in the Assembly and will now have a 48 to 32 plurality. The Senate remains in Democratic hands with a 24 to 16 majority. The results are viewed as a defeat for Governor Chris Christie who campaigned hard for Republicans, especially in the closer races.

Ohio.  One of the more talked-about ballot measures this year is in Ohio where voters are were asked to approve or repeal S5, the contentious state law limiting collective bargaining rights for state workers. The law was passed by the Republican-led legislature earlier this year but never went into effect. By a 61 to 39 percentage, Ohio voters repealed the new law that would have severely limited the bargaining rights of more than 360,000 teachers, firefighters, police officers, and other state employees.

Virginia.  All 140 House and Senate members were up for reelection in 2011. Republicans remain firmly in control of the House of Delegates, winning 68 of 100 seats, defeating three Democratic incumbents. They gained four seats to seize outright control of the 40-member Senate. In a hard-fought election, Republican Bryce Reeves defeated Democratic Sen. Edd Houck with more than 200 votes, resulting in a 20-20 split in that chamber.  However, the GOP has the majority with a tie vote cast by Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican.  The election consolidated GOP control of the Senate, House, governor’s mansion, and attorney general’s seat.  According to the Washington Post, “Republicans have not held such sway in Richmond since the Civil War.”

Tuesday is the general election and your last day to vote on the ten proposed amendments to the Texas Constitution, as well as on other local issues.  Are you prepared to cast an educated vote?

SATP is pleased to help educate Texans on these proposed changes in several ways. First, we encourage all voters to visit the Texas Secretary of State website and the League of Women Voters website for their descriptions and impartial analyses of each amendment. Second, the SATP Board of Directors has announced its recommendations on each issue.  These positions are offered to help you make these important decisions.

While San Antonio Tea Party carefully deliberated these issues, we strongly urge you to arrive at your own considered decision. Please follow the links below to assist with your research:

Printable Amendments Language with explanation and summary.

Printable Amendments Pro and Con opinions.

Printable Matrix comparing SATP recommendations with other conservative Texas groups.

Printable version of SATP recommendations.

Be informed and VOTE!

Oct 17 2011

Dewhurst and Cruz Neck and Neck in Texas Senate Race

These results are from a poll which was conducted through automated phone calls and direct email solicitations of 4372 Republican voters in the state of Texas of whom 844 responded to the poll. 56% of the responses came from direct email contacts and 44% from telephone responses. The pool consisted of active party members identified by association with clubs, groups and party organizations and voters who were identified from voter rolls as having voted Republican in 2008 and 2010. They were geographically distributed over most of the state, with clusters in Tarrant, Denton, Comal, Harris, Hays, Travis, Blanco, Collin, Llano and Montgomery Counties. The results of other questions also included in this poll will be released separately.

Poll Date: 10/12-10/17, 2011
Poll Method: Direct Email and Automated Calls
Poll Sample: 844 Republican voters in Texas
Margin of Error: +/- 3%

Candidate                                    Percent

Ted Cruz                                      32%
David Dewhurst                           31%
Tom Leppert                                  8%
Lela Pittenger                                5%
Elizabeth Ames Jones                  4%
Glenn Addison                               3%
Andre Castanuela                          1%
Curtis Cleaver                                0%
Undecided                                    14%

The exact spread between the two frontrunners is less than 1% (.59%). The number of undecideds (including no response entries) remains very high, but is not enough to give either leading candidate a clear majority, suggesting the likelihood, at this early date, of a run-off.

Other data from this poll is being released separately this week.

This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. Azimuth polling is a non-partisan polling company.